Fecha Actual:February 2, 2023

US production, FOMC and employment reviews next week.

This week the first revision of the economic situation in the United States is expected after the holidays. Today, January 2, more than 3,600 flights have been canceled worldwide, more than half of them in the United States, which adds to the number of travel interruptions during the holiday week due to adverse weather and the increase of cases caused by the Omicron variant.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is on track to rise 24% this year, and the index’s price-to-earnings ratio is well above its long-term average, raising concerns about the possibility of the market being overbought. Earning growth for US corporations is expected to slow next year after a huge success in 2021 despite the vicissitudes. Despite this increase, uncertainty grows as investors try to justify the price of shares near record highs.

Currency market prices enter their new year on the rise in Europe. EURUSD managed to break the highs of November and December to position itself towards 1.15 within the month of January. GBPUSD for its part also surpassed the highs of the last two months and is already positioned for 1.3. We will have a turning point in the week after the review of the FOMC, the take profit and possible buys in crosses with the dollar would be expected for this Wednesday.

USDCAD settled to the lows of December 8th. Buyers at this cross from 1.25 are still holding on to the market. It is possible that above 1.2650 we will go back with buy strategies up to 1.27. If the market settlement remains below 1.2620, take profit will continue until 1.26 and 1.25. USDJPY keeps harboring the skeptics and the doubtful. This crossing will not present changes until you have a more controlled pandemic. Below 115.0 we could go back to intraday sell this week. Everything will depend on the US manufacturing and services production data and finally on the employment data on Friday, January 7.

Metal commodities beat expectations and found their last buyers at the end of the year topping December highs. For XAUUSD gold we will need a final confirmation for buy up to 1850.0 and 1860.0 (November 2021 levels). Silver XAGUSD is not quite positioned to the buyer yet. On the one hand, we have buyers from mid-October and early November 2021 with a buy force above 23.0 with projections up to 23.50 and 24.0. On the other hand the maximum of 23.30 could be a take profit level up to 23.0. We will have mixed strategies in silver for next week.

Cryptocurrency investors charged at the end of the year and new buyers may take time to enter. ETH is estimated to be back at 3,000.0, while BTC is on its way to 41,000. US production data, FOMC minutes, and employment data could incentivize new buyers to opt for these instruments. It will depend on whether or not the settlement stays below 47,000 for BTC (no buyer incentives) and if ETH stays below 3,800 (without sufficient buy power).


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