This Wednesday the FOMC interest rates are presented although we do not estimate many changes compared to last semester. It is in June when the real action of the Fed begins. While economic risks persist, they are fading with growing confidence that the economy can fully reopen by the summer.
Given the Fed’s current caution, this is more likely to result in a significant change in the Fed’s stance at the June FOMC meeting, when the bank releases the next forecast. At that point, we believe they will indicate a slow and steady decline in asset purchases before year-end, possibly implying a shift to focus purchases more.
We also expect most FOMC members to forecast a rate hike in 2023 and possibly a quarter to opt for 2022.
Weekly market projections from March 15 to 19.
EURUSD closed its weekly activity higher. Buy preference over 1.1960 to 1.1980 and 1.20. Sell below 1.1950, ideally 1.1944 through 1.1922 and 1.1910. So far the monthly minimum is at the level of 1.1830 and the maximum at the level of 1.21. For above 1.20 sell expire below 1.19., Important not to stay with sell in this month. Passing 1.21 we will have more bullish rallies.
GBPUSD ended its week higher. Buy preference over 1.3930 to 1.3960 and 1.40. Sell are outstanding below 1.39 to 1.3870. Monthly activity remains with lows at 1.38 and highs at 1.40. Above 1.40 all sell of the crossover expire. On Thursday the interest rate possible correction of the cross is presented where it could fall to the minimum and then go to buy again.
USDJPY closed long on its weekly performance. The current highs maintain a strategic preference for sell. Below 108.70 we go with sell up to 108.50 and 108.30.
USDCAD closed sell. New monthly low at 1.2470, therefore, we expect new lows next week. Wednesday’s interest rate could have a dovish result for the market. Below 1.2470 we sell to 1.2450, below 1.2450 the sell pressure will increase to levels of 1.2410.
AUDUSD closed buy. Above 0.7750 the preference is buy up to 0.7760 and 0.7780. Above 0.78 we estimate new highs for the current month of March. If the opening of the week remains below 0.7750 we go for sell until 0.7730.
XAGUSD XAUUSD closed buyers on weekly activity. In silver we remain with a buy preference on 26.0 until 26.13, on 26.20 we continue to buy until 26.30. The March low so far is at 24.90 levels while the highs at 26.50 and 25.70. In gold, the monthly minimums are at 1690.0 and 1680.0 and the maximum level at 1740.0. The preference is buy over 1720.0 through 1730. And 1740.0.
BTCUSD remains buy over 57,000. Important area of maximums in bitcoin not recommended operationally. Passing 58,000 will take buy pressure up to possible new highs of 60,000 and 65,000.