On Friday, the US Bureau of Employment Statistics will release the unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls. In recent weeks, the levels of these months have evolved positively, generating more optimism in the markets.
The NFP for February and March showed a positive variation in the number of non-farm employees. The relevance of the data is due to the fact that a large portion of the employed population is part of this sector. A negative variation or a reduction would show a drop in economic activity.
Just as non farm payroll productivity did not grow to 5.4% (annualized) in the first quarter, it is expected that the NFP released will have more optimistic results.
The positive results result in an optimism in the markets as they are a sign of stability and normalization of the economy. It is analyzed that the indicator reaches for the month of April, a variation of 978K, contrasting the previous 916K.
In this sense, it is expected that the unemployment rate shows a decrease towards 5.8%. This represents the fourth consecutive month of loss.
This reduction in both unemployment and the increase in people employed in the non-agricultural industry are supported by the drop in new applications for jobless claims.
The data is published weekly and shows that the rate of applications has slowed down in the last two months. This Thursday was published and showed the reduction to 498K new requests for this week.
These data have a direct impact on the projections and on the optimism of a solution close to the crisis caused by the current pandemic. These data are likely to impact monetary policy decisions at upcoming FOMC and Fed meetings.