Market projections March 21 to 25

Russian President Vladimir Putin put his nuclear forces on high alert in late February and warned NATO not to interfere in Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has repeatedly said the United States is ready to defend any Russian incursion into NATO territory.

A clash between the world’s two biggest nuclear powers is the nightmare scenario that military planners have worked to avoid since the Soviet Union acquired its first atomic bomb at the start of the Cold War. The invasion of Ukraine has brought such a perspective into the calculus of leaders on both sides for the first time in a generation.

President Vladimir Putin put his nuclear forces on high alert in late February and warned NATO not to interfere in Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has repeatedly said the United States is ready to defend any Russian incursion into NATO territory.

“With more military activities in the air, with drones, with planes, there is a risk,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters this week ahead of a summit of alliance defense ministers. “We have to do everything we can to prevent such incidents and accidents and, if they do happen, to make sure they don’t get out of control.”

Russian forces have so far not tried to provoke or engage allied forces, NATO officials say, even as they continue to bombard Ukrainian cities and try to regroup from initial failures and stalled advances by Ukrainian troops.

Still, the arms convoys that the United States and its NATO allies send to Ukraine are “legitimate targets” for Russia’s military, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on March 12 on state television, calling “dangerous move” deliveries.

That followed an earlier warning by Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko about the dangers of a confrontation between Russia and NATO. “Risks arise,” Grushko told Rossiya 24 TV on March 2. “There are no guarantees that there will be no incidents and there are no guarantees that these incidents cannot escalate in a direction that is absolutely not desired,” he said.

EURUSD is projected higher for next week. Above 1.1050 buys remain until 1.11 and 1.1130. Above 1.1130 we pass monthly highs up to 1.12 and 1.1250. Production data out of Germany on Thursday could be cause for the euro’s take profit to correct again. The current price band of the cross would remain between 1.10 and 1.12 on average. Sells below 1.09 are considered expired going into April. Buys above 1.13 will not hit the market without the regional conflict still active.

GBPUSD remains under buy pressure into Friday’s close. Buys are considered optimal above 1.32 confirmed until 1.3245. The level of 1.32 acts simultaneously as a maximum, so we must wait for confirmations. These levels are not positioning. Buys are not the preference even at these levels. Below 1.3150 sell is preferred until 1.3130 and 1.3120.

USDJPY remains buyer above 119.20 to 119.30 and 119.50.

USDCAD remains seller. Sell preference from 1.2580 to 1.2560. Below 1.2650 the price acts as highs in the current market area. Buy is not yet the preference in the current market area. It is possible that the month of March continues lower for the euro.

XAGUSD XAUUSD gold and silver remain at take profit prices. Silver below 25.0 remains seller. Sell start at 24.80 until 24.70 and 24.60. Above 25.0 buys are preferred until 25.30 and 25.50. Gold remains above 1900.0 and buyer positioning is likely to return between 1900.0 and 1915.0. We prefer to wait for buyers at these current market levels.

Cryptocurrency market remains buyer for the coming week. BTCUSD above 41,000.0, the buy market remains in the market up to 42,000 and 43,500. In Ethereum, buyers do not stay in the market below 3000.0. We must wait for the positioning above 2900.0 for possible intraday buys up to 3000.0.