Expectations for US Retail Sales

After less positive than expected results in nonfarm payrolls, a week begins with data on retail sales, interest rates and inflation in the United States. The results of the indicator will show an acceleration or deceleration in the growth rate of economic activity.

Projections show that there will be a decline in the rate of growth. Although the records of manufacturing and service productions have increased, the growth rate of retail sales has not accompanied such growth.

Comparatively, in the first quarter of the year, retail sales have had a great growth, which stagnated in the last measurement in April. It is expected that in May, they even show a drop in it. However, the growth obtained is higher than levels prior to the crisis of the pandemic.

Retail sales excluding automobiles, month-to-month.

Source: US Census Bureau.

The rebound in March is due to the implementation of the various stimulus programs approved by the current Administration, the reactivation of economic activity and, with it, the evolution of unemployment.

Expectations are set in the Federal Reserve meeting that will have its official statement on Wednesday and the decision they make on the economic stimuli they have implemented to get out of the crisis.