Among the events that are expected for this week, is the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on interest rates, generating aftershocks in the AUDUSD cross. The meeting is scheduled for this Tuesday, April 6, 1:30 am ET.
Given that the decision is subject to economic activity and the evolution of inflation according to the Bank’s objective, it is unlikely that there will be an alteration in short-term interest rates. The current inflation rate is 0.9%.
The value of the current interest rate stipulated by the Bank is 0.10% and the projection is that it will be maintained, since the inflation objective of between 2 and 3% has not yet been achieved. These levels are expected to be reached by 2024. In this sense, some change in inflationary rates should also be reflected by changes in employment growth.
The truth is that the employment situation is also under review, since as long as unemployment remains above 4%, it is not likely that the measures will be modified or hardened. In turn, it is expected that they will mention the economic support program to the companies affected to a greater extent by the pandemic. The Job Keepers program came to an end on March 28 and there are still no current renewals.
Although no changes in the rate are expected, data to pay attention, are those that will be given in the subsequent statements, where they will explain the reasons for the decision making. Here, the tone of the measures should be taken into account, which decision they will make on additional measures to support the labor market and on the additional purchase of bonds.
Attention to the data to be published, the AUDUSD cross is still consolidating between highs of 0.7620 and 0.76. Up to 0.758 and 0.756, the preference is sell. Avoid buys below 0.7620 and 0.7630.