Fecha Actual:April 19, 2024

Tension in Rome between Boris and Macron. Interest rate week.

Leaders of the Group of 20 major economies on Sunday agreed to a final statement calling for “meaningful and effective” measures to limit global warming, but offered few concrete commitments and disappointed climate activists. We expect a market opening with a significant impact on the market. On the one hand we have the conflict between Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron. President Johnson warned Macron (on the sidelines of the Rome summit) to “withdraw his threats” to impose more onerous border controls and criticized the French president for a leaked official letter suggesting the UK should be punished for leaving. the European Union.

Macron and Johnson had a 30-minute face-to-face meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit. Downing Street’s combative statement after the meeting contrasted with the more conciliatory one from the Elysee Palace, which said both leaders agreed to work constructively to reduce the dispute over post-Brexit fishing licenses.

“This was a time for the G20 to act with the responsibility they have as the largest emitters, but we only see half measures rather than concrete urgent actions,” said Friederike Roder, vice president of the advocacy group for sustainable development Global Citizen. The summit’s outcome document said current national plans on how to curb emissions will need to be strengthened “if necessary” and does not make a specific reference to 2050 as the date to achieve net zero carbon emissions.

The tension in the international market was already felt at the close of the market on Friday. The euro fell at its main crosses. The weekly projection remains with a high potential buyer in EURUSD over 1.1550. However, we do not believe that the European confrontations are well received by the market. Sellers await the 1.5 price crossover. On the part of the crosses with the pound, we estimate that this Thursday the buyers would release positions of GBPUSD up to possible 1.36 and 1.3550. We are ruling out interested buyers given the tensions between France and the UK this weekend. Gold and silver commodities could take center stage in the days of interest rate announcements. For gold there would be no buy interest below 1,800.0 this week. The 1790.0 level is important for buyers in the current market zone.

The result of days of tough negotiations between diplomats in Rome leaves a huge work to be done at the broader climate summit of the United Nations COP26 in Scotland. That starts this week and most of the G20 leaders will fly there directly from Rome. The stakes are huge, including the very survival of the Netherlands, the impact on economic livelihoods around the world, and the stability of the global financial system. The entire international market is waiting for announcements at this summit in Scotland as a result of taking place in a context of interest rates for the month of November.

The week will conclude with American and Canadian employment data. The market crossover in question will be USDCAD as every month. The projections of the cross remain with a sell preference below 1.24. The Fed could take a major turn this week by positioning the cross above 1.24 again to 1.25. It is possible that buyers will enter the dollar on Monday discounting positive employment information.

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