The recovery of employment, inflation and consumption: challenges of the second quarter in the economies

The market week that passed was defined by the increase in inflation in the United States of 0.8% and the fall in retail sales of 0.5% projected to a result of -0.8%. These data left the dollar at its lowest levels of its main crosses. The impact on inflation and the lack of incentive of the population to maintain consumption was uncovered. Commodities acted as a refuge but without causing reversals above their highs in May.

The market will find itself evaluating the governments’ measures regarding their monetary stimulus strategies for the next semester of the economy. The monetary injection of the stimulus plans was reflected in inflation earlier than expected and it did not follow the American figures this time.

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EURUSD closed buy. Sell preference below area highs. Below 1.2150 and 1.2170 we prefer to wait for profit takings as they are the highs of the month of May. Production data on Friday could cause a new buyer scenario or reversals above 1.22 to 1.2230 and 1.2250. From the highs of 1.22, the highs of 1.2150 and 1.2170 expire and therefore sell.

GBPUSD closed buy. This crossing does not maintain preferences, both scenarios are viable for next week. Below 1.41 we expect to sell, ideally from 1.4090 and 1.4080 to 1.4050. If, on the other hand, the buy opens on Monday, we prefer to wait above 1.4110 to buy until 1.4130 and 1.4150; below these levels we return for sell. The expiration levels are: above 1.4170 the sell expires and below 1.4030 the buys expire.

USDJPY closed unchanged. It remains with a sell preference below 109.50. We will expect sell at 109.20 to 109.05. Below 109.0 the sell pressure will increase to 108.50 and 108.30.

USDCAD closed sell. It remains waiting for buyers above the lows of 1.2080 and 1.2070. Sell is not viable because they are high accumulation minimums. Sell is only possible below 1.2050 to 1.2030 and extensions.

AUDUSD closed buy. Sell preference below highs of 0.78 and 0.7790.

USDCHF closed sell. Waiting for buyers above the 0.90 lows. Below 0.90 we do choose to sell up to 0.8980.

XAGUSD XAUUSD commodities gold and silver closed buy. In gold we are waiting for sellers (May highs). Corrections could be only up to 1830.0; This level is the most important, dividing the buyers up to 1844.0 from the sellers up to 1820.0. Reversals occur above 1850.0; on this price the buy pressure will increase until 1900.0. In silver we maintain a buy preference over 27.30 to 27.50 and extensions.

Bitcoin remains in correction, more take profit is expected below 49,000. Possible entry prices between 48,000 and 47,000.