The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, likely rose 5.5% in April from a year earlier, after rising 5.6% the previous month. The yearly advance would suggest only a slight easing in the pace of core price pressures, and that inflation is proving persistent. The core rate has remained in a range of 5.5% to 5.7% for the past four months, underscoring the sticky nature of inflation. Wednesday’s report will be the first of two CPI reports Fed policymakers will have on hand ahead of their June rate decision.
Market projections 05/08 to 05/12
EURUSD remains with a buying preference, however the highs of the cross are revealing that buyers do not hold market positions below 1.1050. We may have a selling scenario during the open on Monday 08. Shorting starts at 1.10 with TP 1.0990, then another sell starts at 1.0990 with TP 1.0980.
Attention with this last interval since the buyers will begin to test levels. Between 1.0980 and 1.0970 we will be attentive to possible buyers but without pushing buys. Below 1.0970 it goes to 1.0960 and 1.0950. If, on the other hand, a buyer opens on Monday 05/08, the purchases begin at 1.1040 with TP 1.1050. Once the market confirms above 1.1050 the buying continues to 1.1060 and 1.1070. The highs are between 1.1080 and 1.1090 with a buying preference over 1.1090 to 1.11.
These scenarios will be reviewed again on Tuesday in preparation for the US inflation data on Wednesday at 9:30 am EST. This information will possibly change the market projection. It is important to consider that the cross remains within the buying zone and the sales are temporary to determine new highs unless the inflation data changes the projection. A forecast change would imply the currency trades below 1.0950 to 1.09. We will review the market on our channel and market alerts. Since price action entries should continue in favor of the market area.
GBPUSD remains bought with a buying preference. Shorting is possible below 1.2630 with TP 1.2615. Then I would continue shorting at 1.2610 with TP 1.26. The 1.26 level is crucial for buyers where they possibly try their entries from 1.26 to TP 1.2610. However, if it confirms below 1.26, the sales will continue below 1.2590 and 1.2580. Like the EUR, this cross will be affected by the US inflation data on Wednesday. We will review these prices on Tuesday night in Asia from our channel and alerts. This crossing remains within the buying zone, therefore any sale that fails to close intraday could compromise your trading from the point of view of price action.
USDCAD remains sold with a buying preference. This cross remains sold although with a high buyer potential within 1.3350 and 1.3330. This cross has not managed to be positioned buyer in the employment data of last Friday. However, the selling or selling intervals are limited by a high demand for the dollar against the Canadian at these prices. It would be preferable not to engage in sales and wait for buyers. We will review these prices on Wednesday.
The XAUUSD XAGUSD commodities remain bought, we will not review the projections until we have the inflation information from the United States. The data could have an impact on buyer positioning in the dollar and therefore profit-taking on commodities.