The US Fed is likely to deliver a 25 basis point interest rate hike and then pause for the rest of the year. The US Federal Reserve will deliver a final 25 basis point interest rate hike in May and then hold rates steady for the rest of 2023, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The survey also showed that a brief, shallow recession in the United States is likely this year. The US inflation data is expected on Friday. The forecast of the data is equal to the result of the previous month. The prevailing scenario so far is that the Fed would raise only 25bp for May.
Weekly market projections
EURUSD remains buyer in the current market zone. The weekly strategy preference is buying above 1.0950.
Buy intervals: Buy stop at 1.0990 with TP 1.10. Buy stop 1.1010 with TP 1.1020. Buy stop 1.1033 with TP 1.1045. Buyers at 1.1040 hold to close between 1.1045 and 1.1050.
Sell intervals: Sell stop 1.0980 with TP 1.0973. Sell stop 1.0960 to TP 1.0952.
Attention: above 1.0950 the preference is to buy any sale that presents latency in the entry, ideally working with the expiration of the entry.
GBPUSD remains a buyer in the area. The cross is in consolidation intervals between 1.2430 and 1.2450. It is advisable in this cross to move within the market that exceeds the buying pressure on 1.2450 with TP 1.2460. If the price confirms above 1.2450, it could even lose buying force at those levels. I suggest letting go of the buying levels at 1.2440 and 1.2450 and waiting for confirmation at 1.2460 with TP 1.25. Then above 1.25 the market pressure should be maintained until 1.2520 and 1.2530.
Sell intervals: Sell stop 1.2420 with TP 1.2410. Then sell below 1.24 (ideally confirmed) to TP 1.2380.
USDCAD remains bought in the zone although losing buying force below 1.3550. Preference is mixed at these levels as the market could take gains on the dollar and fall as far as 1.3520 and 1.35. Below 1.35 with TP 1.3480 and 1.3450.
Buy intervals: at the moment we do not consider acceptable buying intervals within 1.3550 and 1.3560. We prefer to wait for enough confirmation or for buying pressure to pass 1.3560 before going long to 1.36 and 1.3650.
XAUUSD GOLD preference is selling below 1980 to 1975. Then selling from 1970 to 1960. Buying does not look acceptable at current levels. In silver the preference is selling below 25.0 with TP 24.94
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