Fecha Actual:September 21, 2021

Employment in Canada: On the Road to Recovery

This Friday the Statistics Office of Canada will report the country’s employment data and the evolution during the month of August. It will be the main data for the Canadian economy, since this Wednesday the Bank of Canada, as expected, decided to maintain its policy.

 

The Bank of Canada chose to keep the asset purchase and the interest rate at 0.25%.

The changes will come when the economy recovers from the ravages of the pandemic. However, the revision of monetary policy in October and the revision of the projections will bring greater precision on the terms.

The employment data and the variation in unemployment in the last month, will be a great determinant on the next decisions.

The latest data published in August, on the  employment change in the month of July, were lower than expected. The variation represented a retracement from 230K to 94K.

For the month of August, the employment variation is projected to rise to 100K. As for the unemployment rate, it is expected to remain around 7%, below 7.5%.

During 2020 and after the effects of the pandemic, a stimulus policy was deployed, in which the Bank of Canada has been working to reverse them. In this way, they have reduced their asset purchase program three times since the end of last year. With the projections of economic recovery in the second semester, it is likely that they will resume tapering in the coming months.

USDCAD above 1.26 the preference is buy. Faced with good data, we will have the cross for sell below 1.2640 to levels of 1.2620. The general projections are buyer about 1.26. Buys above 1.27 hold.

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