July began with liquidations of market positions in the dollar. The employment data on Friday surprised with results that were above forecasts. Despite this, the market was in charge of discounting the information in the previous days and took advantage of the employment data to attack the unsuspecting buyers of the dollar. The final situation seems to make it clear that we will have a bearish dollar by July. This Wednesday the United States interest rate will be presented and buyers will possibly return to the dollar.
So far the interest rate will remain unchanged. Although a reinforcement in the communication of the intention to raise rates earlier than expected is not ruled out. At the end of the week, the focus will be on the evolution of Canadian employment data. Once again USDCAD in front of the scene to end the week. Better recovery data in employment are expected for Canada.
EURUSD closed buy. Above 1.1850 the intervals would be completed until reaching 1.19. The preference is buy waiting 1.1870 to 1.1880 and extensions. At the 1.19 levels, we will await confirmation above 1.1910 to buy back to 1.1930 and extensions. For the moment we discard the sell scenario. The opening of tomorrow Monday should be below 1.1850 to take us to sell.
GBPUSD closed buy on its trading day on Friday. Above 1.38 we will remain in buy positions. For Monday’s open we would expect positioning above 1.3840 and 1.3850 before buy. We now have the highs of 1.39 to face for the week. Once past 1.39 we will keep up to 1.3950. The preference is buy. Sellers will rule out above 1.3820 and 1.38.
AUDUSD closed buy on Friday. About 0.75 we will keep waiting for buy. Ideally the entry level is about 0.7530 to 0.7550. Once we have reached 0.7550 we will wait for confirmation and then we will enter until 0.76 and 0.7650. We rule out sell scenarios above 0.75.
USDCAD closed seller. This crossing will be in check during the week for two reasons: FOMC on Wednesday, where buys are expected on the crossing. Then on Friday by Canadian employment data the Canadian dollar is expected to appreciate. At the moment the preference is for sell, although the market could discount the information for Wednesday in a positive way and begin to rise from Monday. Buys will be evaluated on 1.2340 and 1.2350. Otherwise, the strategy will remain sell just below 1.23 to 1.2290 and extensions.
GOLD closed buy. The preference is to wait for take profit levels. Buys at these levels are only below 1780.0 and 1776.0. Otherwise, if the opening on Monday exceeds 1795.0 we go to buy until 1800. We discard sell at these area highs.