The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the change in GDP for the first quarter of the year in the next few hours. The data will arrive hours after the publication of interest rates.
The Reserve Bank’s measures are aimed at recovering the rhythm of economic growth, achieving full employment and inflation in line with the target (sustained between 2% and 3%). This means that the necessary instruments will be implemented to adapt and therefore the RBA decided to sustain the interest rate.
The gradual decrease in unemployment, the stability in inflation – although below the target – and the stability of the AUDUSD affect the GDP that will be published in the next few hours.
The current Australian GDP data corresponds to the last quarter of 2020 and has been published in March. These data show that the country’s economy had grown by 3.1%, showing an acceleration in the rate of growth, despite the context. Even so, the GDP in the last year, showed a fall of 1.1%.
The positive results are due to multiple factors, such as the seasonal increase in the prices of commodities such as iron, the recovery of private consumption and private investment.
Currently, with the CPI at 1.1%, an unemployment rate of 5.5%, the interest rate at 0.10% and a comparatively more optimal economic context, it is estimated that the GDP presents better results. The growth forecast for the first quarter of 2021 is between 1.1% and 1.5%.
In this sense, the RBA expects GDP to grow around 4% during 2021 and 3.5% by 2022.