Fecha Actual:September 21, 2021

Interest rate and employment in Canada, USDCAD projections

The Bank of Canada holds eight annual meetings where they stipulate the economic decision. For almost a year it has maintained the same level in the interest rate, the last modification happened in March 2020, when it went from 0.75% to 0.25%.

The forecast is that it does not change and is at 0.25% for the announcement that will be made on Wednesday. This decision strictly depends on inflation levels, which are forecast to reach 2% per year, according to the latest statement from the BoC.

The latest measurement published in February placed the January CPI at 0.6%, registering a slight increase. The interannual CPI stood at 1%, therefore considering the levels estimated by the BoC for the modification of the interest rate, it will probably be renewed for a new period at 0.25%.

Variations in Canadian employment will also be released this week. The last published unemployment rate registered an increase from 8.9% to 9.4%, it is analyzed that the new result is located at 9.2%.

Regarding the variation in employment, the last record was higher than expected, giving -212.8K. The projection estimates a variation towards 105.5K.

The reduction in the unemployment rate and the positive variation in employment levels may be positive for the CAD.

Projected prices:

USDCAD remains in sell preference below 1.27. Sell are possible from 1.2630 to 1.26. The buy preference is maintained from 1.27 to 1.2730.

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